Minutes after the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Buffalo Payments to arrange an AFC Championship rematch with the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, the Chiefs opened as a 1.5-point favourite on BetMGM. NFL odds.
By Monday, the Chiefs have been underdogs, shifting between +2.5 and +1.5. In the event that they’re nonetheless underdogs on Sunday evening, it will be the Chiefs’ first postseason canine since their divisional spherical loss to the New England Patriots in January 2016. And will probably be the primary time they have been within the bullpen. My postseason dwelling canine for the reason that wild card loss to the Baltimore Ravens in January 2011.
This is a take a look at NFL betting on convention tournaments over the previous 20 years:
House Underdogs
If the streak continues, the Chiefs would be the seventh dwelling underdog within the convention championship for the reason that 2003-04 NFL season.
The six dwelling canines are forward 3-3 towards the unfold. Most lately, the Philadelphia Eagles narrowly bowled a +3 in a 38-7 win over the Minnesota Vikings seven years in the past.
In every sport, the underdog has additionally gained outright, i.e. the house canines are 3-3 to the cash line.
domination…
England shone in each the AFC Championship and NFC Championship final yr, as they did in each convention tournaments in January 2004.
Within the 18 years between these two seasons, he went just below 9-22-3.
Even with an 0-2 mark final yr, the gamers have made it to 9 of the final 13 convention tournaments, together with all three Chiefs appearances from January 2019 by means of January 2021.
And when he hits over, he hits comfortably; In these 9 video games since January 2016, he has averaged seven factors.
…however not in Windy Video games
As of Wednesday, the forecast winds at GEHA Stadium at Arrowhead Stadium are between 11-13 mph.
Since January 2004, 9 convention tournaments have been performed outside with common wind speeds of not less than 10 mph. The rating is 2-5-2 (. 286) in these video games.
How does that evaluate to all postseason video games and common season NFL video games with winds of not less than 10 mph?
In 48 postseasons over the previous 20 years, the quantity is 17-29-1 (.370).
In over 1,000 instances within the common season, the overrun is 460-574-8 (.445).
The primary half progresses
Deebo Samuel’s 44-yard landing run and Robbie Gould’s 38-yard area aim within the ultimate seven minutes of the primary half of final yr’s NFC Championship gave the San Francisco 49ers a three-point halftime lead, 10-7, halftime coated unfold (+2.5).
That is certainly one of solely 4 first half covers by street groups within the final 15 convention championships.
The Majors are 10-4-1 vs. the primary half distinction for the reason that New England Patriots coated towards the Indianapolis Colts in January 2015. The Chiefs account for 2 protection, one loss and one rush over that point, most lately protecting -2.5 towards the Bengals final yr.
You’ll be able to view up to date Convention Championship odds and extra NFL betting alternatives at BetMGM Online sports book.
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